Previously, Jay illustrated the conflicts of interest and perception between the state and the EU. Similarly, the locals are conflicted on whether their countries should enter the EU, and this conflict of interests could cause rifts in the masses.
The main problem identified by the EU is the lack of political will, especially in Bosnia. Hasan Nuhanovic, a Bosniak survivor of the Srebrenica genocide, mentioned that the division into two administrative units has created a constant threat of separation. This is evident by how the Republica Srpska proudly flies the flag of Serbia, showing intentions of joining Serbia. With this threat, the status quo can be easily disrupted, setting back progress. Therefore, Mr Nuhanovic posits the lack of political will as not merely a top-down issue. He suggests that it is also a bottom-up issue, for separation could threaten their fragile peace.
Secondly, the locals had divergent opinions of China. Mr Nuhanovic views China unfavourably, fearing that Bosnia is a target for China’s One Belt, One Road and eventually China may have political and economic influence over Bosnia. This view is supported by the EU, for they wish to combat Chinese and Russian influence in the region. On the other hand, a Bosnian student studying in the Faculty of Political Science, University of Sarajevo, expressed that Chinese influence as favourable, for Bosnia needs investments from China to progress. She even expressed that if the standards by the EU does not bring progress, Bosnia should not join the EU. These conflicting views, should it be reflected in the population, could prove to be an additional division. In addition, it seems that EU’s best interests is not in Bosnian’s well-being, revealing a pitting of the EU’s self-interests againsts Bosnians interest. This conflict of interest may end up harming Bosnia, should it choose to blindly follow the EU.
Thirdly, the locals were conflicted on how beneficial the EU would be to their countries. Mr Nuhanovic views the EU as a security umbrella, sheltering them from foreign influences. Also, he views that the EU can provide political stability to Bosnia. Unfortunately, Mr Nuhanovic’s view contrasts with the EU’s view that political stability is required of Bosnia before it can join the EU. This mismatch of expectations hence delays Bosnia’s EU membership.
Additionally, the EU presents itself as a natural source of “bright light” in the region, and expects the countries to flock towards them. Madam Dusica Silic, a Serbian ARUP employee, contested that EU membership actually does not improve their economic situation, because Serbia is already dependent on the EU - the EU accounts for 66% of Serbia’s total exports. Mdm Silic commented that EU membership only institutes regulations, which may compensate for Serbia’s lack of functioning systems. Therefore, the EU is seemingly not attractive to Serbia, which contradicts the EU’s expectations.
In conclusion, the local perceptions of external actors are divided and conflicts with the EU’s view. These divergent views could cause rifts in Bosnia’s society, and between the EU and Bosnia.
Written by Andrea Yeo